Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SD Raiders vs Dunbar Rovers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

SD Raiders
SD Raiders
FT
5 – 0
Dunbar Rovers
Dunbar Rovers
5/20/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 16Ernie Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

SD Raiders58%
×Draw21%
Dunbar Rovers21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Raiders
2.04
Dunbar Rovers
1.15

SD Raiders creates 77% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 30 away

creates per match

SD Raiders
1.70
Dunbar Rovers
0.93

allows per match

SD Raiders
1.37
Dunbar Rovers
2.37

finishing

SD Raiders+0.00on par
Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Raiders ↓

Dunbar Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SD Raiders or draw
79%
SD Raiders or Dunbar Rovers
79%
Draw or Dunbar Rovers
42%

Winning margin

SD Raiders wins by 2+
35%
Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SD Raiders 1+ goals
87%
SD Raiders 2+ goals
60%
SD Raiders 3+ goals
33%
Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals
68%
Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals
32%
Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SD Raiders (draw refunded)
73%
Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Raiders at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.37 · 63 matches

Dunbar Rovers away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Raiders attack 1.70 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.04

Dunbar Rovers attack 0.93 + SD Raiders defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

SD Raiders scores more
58%
level
21%
Dunbar Rovers scores more
21%

SD Raiders at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "SD Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: SD Raiders 5–0 Dunbar Rovers

SD Raiders beat Dunbar Rovers 5-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Ernie Smith Reserve in Moorebank.