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SD Raiders vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

SD Raiders
SD Raiders
FT
1 – 3
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
7/16/2022New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 19Ernie Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

SD Raiders49%
×Draw23%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Raiders
1.84
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.34

SD Raiders creates 37% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 62 away

creates per match

SD Raiders
1.70
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.31

allows per match

SD Raiders
1.37
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.98

finishing

SD Raiders+0.00on par
Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Raiders ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SD Raiders or draw
72%
SD Raiders or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
77%
Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
51%

Winning margin

SD Raiders wins by 2+
27%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SD Raiders 1+ goals
84%
SD Raiders 2+ goals
55%
SD Raiders 3+ goals
28%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
74%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
39%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

SD Raiders (draw refunded)
64%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Raiders at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.37 · 63 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Raiders attack 1.70 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.84

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + SD Raiders defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SD Raiders scores more
49%
level
23%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
28%

SD Raiders at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SD Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: SD Raiders 1–3 Bonnyrigg White Eagles

Bonnyrigg White Eagles beat SD Raiders 3-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Ernie Smith Reserve in Moorebank.