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Bonnyrigg White Eagles vs SD Raiders — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SD Raiders
SD Raiders
D. Bittar 30'
R. Takagi 6'
3/22/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 7Bonnyrigg Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles39%
×Draw24%
SD Raiders37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.58
SD Raiders
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 65 away

creates per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.57
SD Raiders
1.62

allows per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.42
SD Raiders
1.58

finishing

Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par
SD Raiders+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonnyrigg White Eagles ↓

SD Raiders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bonnyrigg White Eagles or draw
63%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles or SD Raiders
76%
Draw or SD Raiders
61%

Winning margin

Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
19%
SD Raiders wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
79%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
47%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
21%
SD Raiders 1+ goals
78%
SD Raiders 2+ goals
45%
SD Raiders 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
52%
SD Raiders (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 65 matches

SD Raiders away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.58 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.57 + SD Raiders defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

SD Raiders attack 1.62 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
39%
level
24%
SD Raiders scores more
37%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bonnyrigg White Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
R. Takagi
30'
D. Bittar
86'
S. Dubocanin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1–1 SD Raiders

Bonnyrigg White Eagles and SD Raiders drew 1-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 22, 2025.

Goals: R. Takagi (6'), D. Bittar (30').

The match was played at Bonnyrigg Sports Club in Sydney.