SD Logroñés 1–0 Varea: Result & Stats

SD Logroñés

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Varea

2/2/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 23Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

SD Logroñés51%

×Draw24%

Varea26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SD LogroñésExpected goals in this matchVarea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.18

SD Logroñés

1.75

Varea

1.18

SD Logroñés creates 48% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 108 away

2.54

creates per match

1.81

0.54

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

SD Logroñés

2.54

Varea

1.81

allows per match

SD Logroñés

0.54

Varea

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

Varea →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw

74%

SD Logroñés or Varea

76%

Draw or Varea

49%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+

28%

Varea wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals

83%

SD Logroñés 2+ goals

52%

SD Logroñés 3+ goals

25%

Varea 1+ goals

69%

Varea 2+ goals

33%

Varea 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)

66%

Varea (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 2.54 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.75

Varea attack 1.81 + SD Logroñés defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

SD Logroñés scores more

51%

level

24%

Varea scores more

26%

SD Logroñés at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff