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SD Logroñés vs Sestao River — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sestao River
Sestao River
9/10/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

SD Logroñés40%
×Draw28%
Sestao River32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Logroñés
1.24
Sestao River
1.09

SD Logroñés creates 14% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

creates per match

SD Logroñés
1.03
Sestao River
1.05

allows per match

SD Logroñés
1.14
Sestao River
1.45

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par
Sestao River+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

Sestao River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw
68%
SD Logroñés or Sestao River
72%
Draw or Sestao River
60%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+
17%
Sestao River wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals
71%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
35%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
13%
Sestao River 1+ goals
66%
Sestao River 2+ goals
30%
Sestao River 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
55%
Sestao River (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

Sestao River away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 1.03 + Sestao River defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sestao River attack 1.05 + SD Logroñés defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SD Logroñés scores more
40%
level
28%
Sestao River scores more
32%

SD Logroñés at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: SD Logroñés 3–0 Sestao River

SD Logroñés beat Sestao River 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas in Logroño.