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SD Logroñés vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Unión
Real Unión
3/23/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

SD Logroñés43%
×Draw27%
Real Unión30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Logroñés
1.34
Real Unión
1.06

SD Logroñés creates 26% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 56 away

creates per match

SD Logroñés
1.03
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

SD Logroñés
1.14
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw
70%
SD Logroñés or Real Unión
73%
Draw or Real Unión
57%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+
20%
Real Unión wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals
74%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
39%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
15%
Real Unión 1+ goals
65%
Real Unión 2+ goals
29%
Real Unión 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
59%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 1.03 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.34

Real Unión attack 0.98 + SD Logroñés defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SD Logroñés scores more
43%
level
27%
Real Unión scores more
30%

SD Logroñés at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SD Logroñés vs Real Unión

SD Logroñés and Real Unión drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas in Logroño.