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SD Logroñés vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
4/17/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

SD Logroñés41%
×Draw28%
Rayo Majadahonda31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Logroñés
1.25
Rayo Majadahonda
1.05

SD Logroñés creates 19% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 72 away

creates per match

SD Logroñés
1.03
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

SD Logroñés
1.14
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw
69%
SD Logroñés or Rayo Majadahonda
72%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
59%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+
18%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals
71%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
36%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
13%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
65%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
28%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
57%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 1.03 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + SD Logroñés defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SD Logroñés scores more
41%
level
28%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
31%

SD Logroñés at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: SD Logroñés 3–1 Rayo Majadahonda

SD Logroñés beat Rayo Majadahonda 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas in Logroño.