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SD Logroñés vs Oyonesa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Oyonesa
Oyonesa
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 5Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

SD Logroñés59%
×Draw22%
Oyonesa19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Logroñés
1.87
Oyonesa
0.94

SD Logroñés creates 99% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 109 away

creates per match

SD Logroñés
2.54
Oyonesa
1.33

allows per match

SD Logroñés
0.54
Oyonesa
1.20

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par
Oyonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

Oyonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw
81%
SD Logroñés or Oyonesa
78%
Draw or Oyonesa
41%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+
34%
Oyonesa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals
85%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
56%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
29%
Oyonesa 1+ goals
61%
Oyonesa 2+ goals
24%
Oyonesa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
76%
Oyonesa (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Oyonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 2.54 + Oyonesa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.87

Oyonesa attack 1.33 + SD Logroñés defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

SD Logroñés scores more
59%
level
22%
Oyonesa scores more
19%

SD Logroñés at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: SD Logroñés 3–2 Oyonesa

SD Logroñés beat Oyonesa 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.