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SD Logroñés vs Extremadura — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
CANC
10:00
Extremadura
Extremadura
5/1/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

SD Logroñés53%
×Draw25%
Extremadura23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Logroñés
1.64
Extremadura
0.98

SD Logroñés creates 67% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 12 away

creates per match

SD Logroñés
1.03
Extremadura
0.83

allows per match

SD Logroñés
1.14
Extremadura
2.25

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw
77%
SD Logroñés or Extremadura
75%
Draw or Extremadura
47%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+
28%
Extremadura wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals
81%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
49%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
23%
Extremadura 1+ goals
62%
Extremadura 2+ goals
26%
Extremadura 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
70%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

Extremadura away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 1.03 + Extremadura defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.64

Extremadura attack 0.83 + SD Logroñés defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SD Logroñés scores more
53%
level
25%
Extremadura scores more
23%

SD Logroñés at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SD Logroñés face Extremadura (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with SD Logroñés hosting Extremadura. Match starts May 1, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SD Logroñés host Extremadura at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.