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SD Logroñés vs Ebro — League #876 2026

SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ebro
Ebro
D. Fernandez 78'
S. Gil 72' (pen)
U. Lobede 38'
12/6/2025League #876League #876 · Group 2 - 14Estadio Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SD Logroñés39%
×Draw27%
Ebro34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Logroñés
1.33
Ebro
1.21

SD Logroñés creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

SD Logroñés
0.67
Ebro
1.20

allows per match

SD Logroñés
1.22
Ebro
2.00

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par
Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw
66%
SD Logroñés or Ebro
73%
Draw or Ebro
61%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+
18%
Ebro wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals
74%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
38%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
15%
Ebro 1+ goals
70%
Ebro 2+ goals
34%
Ebro 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
54%
Ebro (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Ebro away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 0.67 + Ebro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ebro attack 1.20 + SD Logroñés defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SD Logroñés scores more
39%
level
27%
Ebro scores more
34%

SD Logroñés at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
U. Lobede
72'
S. GilPenalty
78'
D. Fernandez
SD
Ebro
Carlos Pouso
Manager: Carlos Pouso
Javier Genovés
Manager: Javier Genovés

Match Recap: SD Logroñés vs Ebro

SD Logroñés beat Ebro 2-1 in League #876 on December 6, 2025.

Goals: U. Lobede (38'), S. Gil (72' pen), D. Fernandez (78').

The match was played at Estadio Las Gaunas in Logroño.