SD Logroñés 2–1 Castellón: Result & Stats

SD Logroñés

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Castellón

Iker Unzueta 82', 71' (pen)

Cristian Rodríguez 42'

12/3/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

SD Logroñés42%

×Draw29%

Castellón29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SD LogroñésExpected goals in this matchCastellón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.94

SD Logroñés

1.19

Castellón

0.94

SD Logroñés creates 27% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 57 away

1.13

creates per match

1.11

0.77

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

SD Logroñés

1.13

Castellón

1.11

allows per match

SD Logroñés

0.77

Castellón

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Castellón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

Castellón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw

71%

SD Logroñés or Castellón

71%

Draw or Castellón

58%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+

18%

Castellón wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals

70%

SD Logroñés 2+ goals

33%

SD Logroñés 3+ goals

12%

Castellón 1+ goals

61%

Castellón 2+ goals

24%

Castellón 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)

59%

Castellón (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.77 · 31 matches

Castellón away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 1.13 + Castellón defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Castellón attack 1.11 + SD Logroñés defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SD Logroñés scores more

42%

level

29%

Castellón scores more

29%

SD Logroñés at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

35'

42'

49'

55'

Diego Esteban← Alain Ribeiro

63'

Elosegi← Pablo Monroy

63'

M. Rodríguez← Jaime Paredes

69'

J. de León← Bilal Kandoussi

69'

Pablo Hernández← G. Kochorashvili

71'

Iker UnzuetaPenalty

78'

V. Ruiz

82'

Iker Unzueta

84'

J. Calavera

85'

Carles Salvador← Josep Calavera

85'

K. Koné← Fabrício

87'

C. Rodriguez

88'

R. Sanchez

90+1'

Andrés Silvente← Iker Unzueta

90+1'

Julen Monreal← Santi Samanes

90+1'

Javi Antón← Cristian Rodríguez

SD

Castellón

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Unzueta

Manager: Raúl Llona

55'▲Diego Esteban←▼Alain Ribeiro

63'▲Elosegi←▼Pablo Monroy

63'▲M. Rodríguez←▼Jaime Paredes

90+1'▲Andrés Silvente←▼Iker Unzueta

90+1'▲Julen Monreal←▼Santi Samanes

SD Logroñés substitutes

EstebanElosegiRodríguezSilventeMonrealCastriThompsonMartíOrobiogoikoetxeaBarryLario

Manager: Rubén Torrecilla

69'▲J. de León←▼Bilal Kandoussi

69'▲Pablo Hernández←▼G. Kochorashvili

85'▲Carles Salvador←▼Josep Calavera

85'▲K. Koné←▼Fabrício

90+1'▲Javi Antón←▼Cristian Rodríguez

Castellón substitutes

LeónHernándezSalvadorKonéAntónSarrGalasCubillasFernándezAlbertGarcía

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: SD Logroñés 2–1 Castellón

SD Logroñés beat Castellón 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 3, 2022.

Goals: Cristian Rodríguez (42'), Iker Unzueta (71' pen, 82').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas in Logroño.

SD Logroñés vs Castellón — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: SD Logroñés 2–1 Castellón