Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SD Logroñés vs Casalarreina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
CANC
22:00
Casalarreina
Casalarreina
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 38Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

SD Logroñés63%
×Draw21%
Casalarreina16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Logroñés
2.06
Casalarreina
0.94

SD Logroñés creates 119% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 91 away

creates per match

SD Logroñés
2.54
Casalarreina
1.34

allows per match

SD Logroñés
0.54
Casalarreina
1.58

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par
Casalarreina+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

Casalarreina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw
84%
SD Logroñés or Casalarreina
79%
Draw or Casalarreina
37%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+
39%
Casalarreina wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals
87%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
61%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
34%
Casalarreina 1+ goals
61%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
24%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
79%
Casalarreina (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Casalarreina away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 2.54 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.06

Casalarreina attack 1.34 + SD Logroñés defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

SD Logroñés scores more
63%
level
21%
Casalarreina scores more
16%

SD Logroñés at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: SD Logroñés host Casalarreina

May 16, 2020: SD Logroñés take on Casalarreina in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

SD Logroñés host Casalarreina at Estadio Mundial 82.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.