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SD Logroñés vs Berceo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Berceo
Berceo
11/24/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 14Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

SD Logroñés64%
×Draw20%
Berceo16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Logroñés
2.06
Berceo
0.90

SD Logroñés creates 129% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 111 away

creates per match

SD Logroñés
2.54
Berceo
1.25

allows per match

SD Logroñés
0.54
Berceo
1.59

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par
Berceo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

Berceo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw
84%
SD Logroñés or Berceo
80%
Draw or Berceo
36%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+
40%
Berceo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals
87%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
61%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
34%
Berceo 1+ goals
59%
Berceo 2+ goals
23%
Berceo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
80%
Berceo (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Berceo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 2.54 + Berceo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.06

Berceo attack 1.25 + SD Logroñés defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

SD Logroñés scores more
64%
level
20%
Berceo scores more
16%

SD Logroñés at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SD Logroñés vs Berceo

SD Logroñés and Berceo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.