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SD Logroñés vs Barcelona B — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Barcelona B
Barcelona B
8/27/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

SD Logroñés34%
×Draw27%
Barcelona B39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Logroñés
1.20
Barcelona B
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

creates per match

SD Logroñés
1.03
Barcelona B
1.45

allows per match

SD Logroñés
1.14
Barcelona B
1.37

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par
Barcelona B+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

Barcelona B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw
61%
SD Logroñés or Barcelona B
73%
Draw or Barcelona B
66%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+
14%
Barcelona B wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals
70%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
34%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
12%
Barcelona B 1+ goals
72%
Barcelona B 2+ goals
37%
Barcelona B 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
47%
Barcelona B (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

Barcelona B away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 1.03 + Barcelona B defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.20

Barcelona B attack 1.45 + SD Logroñés defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SD Logroñés scores more
34%
level
27%
Barcelona B scores more
39%

Barcelona B at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barcelona B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SD Logroñés vs Barcelona B

SD Logroñés beat Barcelona B 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas in Logroño.