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SD Logroñés vs Badajoz — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Badajoz
Badajoz
4/3/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

SD Logroñés40%
×Draw30%
Badajoz30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Logroñés
1.15
Badajoz
0.95

SD Logroñés creates 21% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

creates per match

SD Logroñés
1.03
Badajoz
0.76

allows per match

SD Logroñés
1.14
Badajoz
1.27

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par
Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

Badajoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw
70%
SD Logroñés or Badajoz
70%
Draw or Badajoz
60%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+
17%
Badajoz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals
68%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
32%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
11%
Badajoz 1+ goals
61%
Badajoz 2+ goals
25%
Badajoz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
57%
Badajoz (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

Badajoz away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 1.03 + Badajoz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Badajoz attack 0.76 + SD Logroñés defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SD Logroñés scores more
40%
level
30%
Badajoz scores more
30%

SD Logroñés at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: SD Logroñés 1–1 Badajoz

SD Logroñés and Badajoz drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas in Logroño.