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SD Family vs Ulytau — 1. Division 2019

SD Family
SD Family
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ulytau
Ulytau
B. Madelkhan 48'
N. Mamirbaev 57'
K. Nursultanov 5'
4/4/20241. Division1. Division · Round 1Sydykbek Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

SD Family23%
×Draw19%
Ulytau58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Family
1.47
Ulytau
2.41

Ulytau creates 64% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 15 away

creates per match

SD Family
1.81
Ulytau
2.40

allows per match

SD Family
2.41
Ulytau
1.13

finishing

SD Family+0.00on par
Ulytau+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Family ↓

Ulytau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

SD Family or draw
42%
SD Family or Ulytau
81%
Draw or Ulytau
77%

Winning margin

SD Family wins by 2+
10%
Ulytau wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

SD Family 1+ goals
77%
SD Family 2+ goals
43%
SD Family 3+ goals
18%
Ulytau 1+ goals
91%
Ulytau 2+ goals
69%
Ulytau 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

SD Family (draw refunded)
28%
Ulytau (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Family at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.41 · 27 matches

Ulytau away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Family attack 1.81 + Ulytau defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.47

Ulytau attack 2.40 + SD Family defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

SD Family scores more
23%
level
19%
Ulytau scores more
58%

Ulytau at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ulytau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
K. Nursultanov
48'
B. Madelkhan
57'
N. Mamirbaev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: SD Family 1–2 Ulytau

Ulytau beat SD Family 2-1 in 1. Division on April 4, 2024.

Goals: K. Nursultanov (5'), B. Madelkhan (48'), N. Mamirbaev (57').

The match was played at Sydykbek Arena in Aleksandrovka.