SD Atletico Nacional 2–3 Alianza FC: Result & Stats

SD Atletico Nacional

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Alianza FC

10/7/2025

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 11Estadio Aristocles Castillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SD Atletico Nacional30%

×Draw25%

Alianza FC45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SD Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchAlianza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.55

SD Atletico Nacional

1.21

Alianza FC

1.55

Alianza FC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 129 away

1.25

creates per match

0.97

2.13

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

SD Atletico Nacional

1.25

Alianza FC

0.97

allows per match

SD Atletico Nacional

2.13

Alianza FC

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SD Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Alianza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Atletico Nacional ↓

Alianza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

SD Atletico Nacional or draw

55%

SD Atletico Nacional or Alianza FC

75%

Draw or Alianza FC

70%

Winning margin

SD Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

12%

Alianza FC wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

SD Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

70%

SD Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

34%

SD Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

12%

Alianza FC 1+ goals

79%

Alianza FC 2+ goals

46%

Alianza FC 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

SD Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

40%

Alianza FC (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Alianza FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Atletico Nacional attack 1.25 + Alianza FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Alianza FC attack 0.97 + SD Atletico Nacional defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SD Atletico Nacional scores more

30%

level

25%

Alianza FC scores more

45%

Alianza FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alianza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff