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Scunthorpe vs Sutton Utd — League #43 2026

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
Preview
12:30
Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
3/20/2027League #43League #43 · Round 40Attis Arena
47%
Sutton Utd
model favours
27%27%47%

Scunthorpe score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Scunthorpe27%
×Draw27%
Sutton Utd47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.00
Sutton Utd
1.42

Sutton Utd creates 42% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 45 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.80
Sutton Utd
1.24

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.60
Sutton Utd
1.20

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Sutton Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
53%
Scunthorpe or Sutton Utd
73%
Draw or Sutton Utd
73%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
10%
Sutton Utd wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
63%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
26%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
8%
Sutton Utd 1+ goals
76%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
41%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
36%
Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.80 + Sutton Utd defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sutton Utd attack 1.24 + Scunthorpe defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
27%
level
27%
Sutton Utd scores more
47%

Sutton Utd at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 80% of Scunthorpe’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Sutton Utd score first in only 26% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (80% and 61% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 70% of Scunthorpe’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 4 meetings
  • 38% of Sutton Utd’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Scunthorpe
LDWWD
Utd
DLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Scunthorpe face Sutton Utd (League #43)

League #43 returns with Scunthorpe hosting Sutton Utd. Match starts March 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Scunthorpe host Sutton Utd at Attis Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.