Scunthorpe 1–1 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sutton Utd

J. Scrimshaw 51'

D. Wilson 84'

8/21/2021

League Two · Round 4Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe38%

×Draw27%

Sutton Utd35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.24

Scunthorpe

1.31

Sutton Utd

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 69 away

0.89

creates per match

1.12

1.35

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Scunthorpe

0.89

Sutton Utd

1.12

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.35

Sutton Utd

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

65%

Scunthorpe or Sutton Utd

73%

Draw or Sutton Utd

62%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

17%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

73%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

38%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

14%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

71%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

35%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

52%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

38%

level

27%

Sutton Utd scores more

35%

Scunthorpe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Scunthorpe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

D. Wilson

Sutton Utd · F

7.9

Match Events

32'

Lewis Thompson

51'

J. Scrimshaw

69'

H. Jessop← D. Green

69'

E. Boldewijn← K. Davis

71'

Alex Perry

77'

Jake Scrimshaw

77'

R. Korboa← D. Ajiboye

78'

M. O'Malley← L. Thompson

84'

D. Wilson↳ E. Boldewijn

87'

J. Rowe← M. Hippolyte

90'

Omar Bugiel

90+1'

A. Smith← Omar Bugiel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScunthorpeSutton

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots16

11Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots16

1On Target6

4Off Target8

3Blocked2

6Inside Box8

2Outside Box8

Passing

49%Possession51%

299Total Passes331

167Accurate Passes190

56%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1