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Scunthorpe vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Port Vale
Port Vale
9/25/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe31%
×Draw28%
Port Vale41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.05
Port Vale
1.27

Port Vale creates 21% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 118 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.94
Port Vale
1.16

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.37
Port Vale
1.17

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
59%
Scunthorpe or Port Vale
72%
Draw or Port Vale
69%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
12%
Port Vale wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
65%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
28%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
9%
Port Vale 1+ goals
72%
Port Vale 2+ goals
36%
Port Vale 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
43%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.37 · 65 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.94 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Scunthorpe defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
31%
level
28%
Port Vale scores more
41%

Port Vale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Scunthorpe 0–1 Port Vale

Port Vale beat Scunthorpe 1-0 in League Two on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.