Scunthorpe 3–3 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Oxford United

C. Goode 66'

G. Thomas 64'

J. Clarke 60'

C. Nelson 55'

C. Brannagan 50'

J. Henry 8'

11/3/2018

League One · Round 17Glanford Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Scunthorpe34%

×Draw25%

Oxford United41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.54

Scunthorpe

1.38

Oxford United

1.54

Oxford United creates 12% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 135 away

1.38

creates per match

1.36

1.72

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Scunthorpe

1.38

Oxford United

1.36

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.72

Oxford United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

59%

Scunthorpe or Oxford United

75%

Draw or Oxford United

66%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

15%

Oxford United wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

75%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

40%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

16%

Oxford United 1+ goals

79%

Oxford United 2+ goals

45%

Oxford United 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

45%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 1.38 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Scunthorpe defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

34%

level

25%

Oxford United scores more

41%

Oxford United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. Henry↳ J. Mackie

17'

Matthew Lund

21'

I. Ugbo← J. Horsfield

26'

Charlie Goode

42'

Robert Dickie

46'

L. Butroid← C. Borthwick-Jackson

50'

C. Brannagan↳ J. Henry

55'

57'

60'

63'

64'

65'

66'

71'

87'

90'

90'

Scunthorpe

Oxford

1

Eastwood

29

McMahon

15

Mousinho

5

⚽

Nelson

4

Dickie

17

⚽A

▼

Henry

14

Ruffles

8

⚽

Brannagan

19

A

Mackie

12

▼

16

25

14

2

⚽

Clarke

8

▼

Horsfield

21

Burgess

3

▼

Borthwick

20

⚽

7

17

49

18

⚽A

Thomas

Manager: S. McCall

21'▲I. Ugbo←▼J. Horsfield

46'▲L. Butroid←▼C. Borthwick-Jackson

Scunthorpe substitutes

9Ugbo33Butroid12Dales15Lewis23McArdle27Flatt29Wootton

Manager: K. Robinson

65'▲J. Hanson←▼J. Henry

71'▲M. Browne←▼R. Holmes

Oxford United substitutes

6Hanson10Browne3Garbutt9Smith22Raglan23Long41Mitchell