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Scunthorpe vs Morecambe — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Morecambe
Morecambe
M. Lund 40'
K. van Veen 33'
J. Proctor 25'
9/14/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe38%
×Draw27%
Morecambe36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.31
Morecambe
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 93 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Morecambe
1.17

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Morecambe
1.73

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Morecambe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
64%
Scunthorpe or Morecambe
73%
Draw or Morecambe
62%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
17%
Morecambe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
73%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
38%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
14%
Morecambe 1+ goals
72%
Morecambe 2+ goals
36%
Morecambe 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
52%
Morecambe (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.31

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
38%
level
27%
Morecambe scores more
36%

Scunthorpe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Scunthorpe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
R. WatsonScunthorpeScunthorpe · G
9.3

Match Events

8'
Junior Brown
25'
J. Proctor
33'
K. van Veen
40'
M. Lund↳ Abobaker Eisa
46'
C. Stockton← J. Cranston
46'
A. Buxton← R. Sutton
83'
R. Slater← K. van Veen
83'
K. Ellison← S. Miller
90'
J. McAtee← Abobaker Eisa

Possession

46%Scunthorpe

Shots

16Scunthorpe

Pass accuracy

50%Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpeMorecambe
Overview
46%Possession54%
16Total Shots10
6Corners3
13Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots10
8On Target7
7Off Target1
1Blocked2
13Inside Box8
3Outside Box2
Passing
46%Possession54%
354Total Passes410
247Accurate Passes282
70%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
7Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Scunthorpe vs Morecambe

Scunthorpe beat Morecambe 3-0 in League Two on September 14, 2019.

Goals: J. Proctor (25'), K. van Veen (33'), M. Lund (40').

Morecambe controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.