Scunthorpe 0–2 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Gillingham

D. Parrett 56'

T. Eaves 54'

12/8/2018

League One · Round 21Glanford Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Scunthorpe36%

×Draw25%

Gillingham39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.44

Scunthorpe

1.38

Gillingham

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 99 away

1.38

creates per match

1.17

1.72

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Scunthorpe

1.38

Gillingham

1.17

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.72

Gillingham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

61%

Scunthorpe or Gillingham

75%

Draw or Gillingham

64%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

16%

Gillingham wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

75%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

40%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

16%

Gillingham 1+ goals

76%

Gillingham 2+ goals

42%

Gillingham 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

48%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 1.38 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Scunthorpe defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

36%

level

25%

Gillingham scores more

39%

Gillingham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

41'

50'

52'

54'

56'

62'

I. Ugbo← M. Lund

69'

A. Lacey← M. Ehmer

71'

A. Dales← G. Thomas

82'

B. Bingham← D. Parrett

Scunthorpe

Gillingham

1

6

12

34

33

A

Byrne

8

⚽

▼

Parrett

5

▼

14

15

20

9

⚽

25

14

23

21

3

20

7

▼

Lund

11

Morris

17

Novak

18

▼

Thomas

29

Wootton

Manager: S. McCall

62'▲I. Ugbo←▼M. Lund

71'▲A. Dales←▼G. Thomas

Scunthorpe substitutes

9Ugbo12Dales8Horsfield10Humphrys19El-Mhanni22Sutton27Flatt

Manager: S. Lovell

69'▲A. Lacey←▼M. Ehmer

82'▲B. Bingham←▼D. Parrett

Gillingham substitutes

4Lacey16Bingham2O'Neill3Garmston11Charles-Cook24Rees30Hadler