Scunthorpe 1–4 Forest Green: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Forest Green

A. Jarvis 9'

M. Stevens 90+5'

J. Matt 83', 32', 24'

10/10/2020

League Two · Round 5Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe30%

×Draw27%

Forest Green43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchForest Green

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.35

Scunthorpe

1.07

Forest Green

1.35

Forest Green creates 26% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 90 away

0.89

creates per match

1.36

1.35

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Scunthorpe

0.89

Forest Green

1.36

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.35

Forest Green

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Forest Green →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

57%

Scunthorpe or Forest Green

73%

Draw or Forest Green

70%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

11%

Forest Green wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

66%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

29%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

9%

Forest Green 1+ goals

74%

Forest Green 2+ goals

39%

Forest Green 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

41%

Forest Green (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Forest Green defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Forest Green attack 1.36 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

30%

level

27%

Forest Green scores more

43%

Forest Green at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Matt

Forest Green · F

9.7

Match Events

9'

A. Jarvis↳ F. Vincent

24'

J. Matt

32'

J. Matt↳ N. Cadden

61'

Lewis Spence

62'

J. McAtee← F. Vincent

67'

R. Loft← A. Jarvis

74'

E. Whitehouse← A. Collins

79'

Jacob Bedeau

83'

J. Matt↳ E. Adams

86'

A. Beestin← L. Spence

87'

M. Stevens← J. Matt

90'

Carl Winchester

90+5'

M. Stevens↳ S. Wagstaff

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScunthorpeForest

Overview

43%Possession57%

6Total Shots11

2Corners2

15Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots11

3On Target6

3Off Target2

0Blocked3

4Inside Box10

2Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

410Total Passes532

316Accurate Passes434

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1