Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Scunthorpe vs Exeter City — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Exeter City
Exeter City
J. Sparkes 89'
M. Jay 11'
3/9/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 35Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe30%
×Draw27%
Exeter City42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.10
Exeter City
1.35

Exeter City creates 23% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 97 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Exeter City
1.35

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Exeter City
1.32

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
58%
Scunthorpe or Exeter City
73%
Draw or Exeter City
70%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
12%
Exeter City wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
67%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
30%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
10%
Exeter City 1+ goals
74%
Exeter City 2+ goals
39%
Exeter City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
42%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
30%
level
27%
Exeter City scores more
42%

Exeter City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
M. JayExeter CityExeter City · F
8.0

Match Events

11'
M. Jay
63'
K. van Veen← R. Loft
70'
P. Sweeney← R. Willmott
75'
A. Gilliead← M. Hippolyte
76'
L. Spence← J. Karacan
76'
J. Hallam← D. Green
78'
J. Sparkes← L. Page
78'
J. Caprice← J. Key
86'
T. Howe← J. Rowe
89'
B. Seymour← J. Randall
89'
J. Sparkes
90'
N. Atangana← M. Jay

Possession

42%Scunthorpe

Shots

5Scunthorpe

Pass accuracy

43%Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpeExeter
Overview
42%Possession58%
5Total Shots12
5Corners8
13Fouls15
Shots
5Total Shots12
0On Target4
5Off Target5
0Blocked3
3Inside Box8
2Outside Box4
Passing
42%Possession58%
299Total Passes419
147Accurate Passes268
49%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls15
1Offsides4

League Two: Scunthorpe 0–2 Exeter City

Exeter City beat Scunthorpe 2-0 in League Two on March 9, 2021.

Goals: M. Jay (11'), J. Sparkes (89').

Exeter City controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 5.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.