Scunthorpe 3–1 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Exeter City

A. Gilliead 75'

J. Ward 37'

J. Perch 24'

M. Jay 27'

10/22/2019

League Two · Round 15Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe30%

×Draw27%

Exeter City42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.35

Scunthorpe

1.10

Exeter City

1.35

Exeter City creates 23% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 97 away

0.89

creates per match

1.35

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Scunthorpe

0.89

Exeter City

1.35

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.35

Exeter City

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

58%

Scunthorpe or Exeter City

73%

Draw or Exeter City

70%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

12%

Exeter City wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

67%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

30%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

10%

Exeter City 1+ goals

74%

Exeter City 2+ goals

39%

Exeter City 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

42%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

30%

level

27%

Exeter City scores more

42%

Exeter City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

R. Colclough

Scunthorpe · M

8.0

Match Events

2'

Harrison McGahey

8'

Yann Songo'o

21'

Tom Parkes

24'

J. Perch↳ M. Lund

27'

M. Jay↳ A. Collins

37'

J. Ward↳ R. McArdle

63'

N. Law← N. Atangana

69'

R. Williams← J. Sparkes

73'

A. Gilliead← J. Ward

75'

A. Gilliead↳ R. Colclough

76'

J. Proctor← K. van Veen

81'

J. Taylor← B. Seymour

88'

L. Sutton← L. Novak

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScunthorpeExeter

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots11

1Corners4

10Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots11

4On Target5

2Off Target2

4Blocked4

6Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

420Total Passes416

256Accurate Passes259

61%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1