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Scunthorpe vs Doncaster — League One 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Doncaster
Doncaster
2/23/2019League OneLeague One · Round 34Glanford Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Scunthorpe38%
×Draw25%
Doncaster38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.48
Doncaster
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 108 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Doncaster
1.13

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.83
Doncaster
1.61

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
62%
Scunthorpe or Doncaster
75%
Draw or Doncaster
62%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
18%
Doncaster wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
77%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
43%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
19%
Doncaster 1+ goals
77%
Doncaster 2+ goals
43%
Doncaster 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
50%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 1.35 + Doncaster defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Doncaster attack 1.13 + Scunthorpe defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
38%
level
25%
Doncaster scores more
38%

Scunthorpe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Scunthorpe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Scunthorpe vs Doncaster

Scunthorpe and Doncaster drew 1-1 in League One on February 23, 2019.

The match was played at Glanford Park in Scunthorpe.