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Scunthorpe vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
K. van Veen 73'
J. Bedeau 15'
O. Finney 69'
D. Powell 46'
1/25/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 29Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe33%
×Draw28%
Crewe39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.14
Crewe
1.25

Crewe creates 10% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 122 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Crewe
1.16

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Crewe
1.38

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
61%
Scunthorpe or Crewe
72%
Draw or Crewe
67%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
14%
Crewe wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
68%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
32%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
11%
Crewe 1+ goals
71%
Crewe 2+ goals
36%
Crewe 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
46%
Crewe (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Crewe defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Crewe attack 1.16 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
33%
level
28%
Crewe scores more
39%

Crewe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
K. van VeenScunthorpeScunthorpe · F
8.5

Match Events

15'
J. Bedeau↳ K. van Veen
46'
D. Powell↳ C. Ainley
61'
Matthew Lund
69'
O. Finney↳ H. Pickering
73'
K. van Veen↳ J. Brown
79'
P. Green← C. Ainley
80'
A. Beestin← J. McAtee
90+1'
G. Miller← K. van Veen

Possession

51%Scunthorpe

Shots

13Scunthorpe

Pass accuracy

51%Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpeCrewe
Overview
51%Possession49%
13Total Shots13
9Corners4
12Fouls5
Shots
13Total Shots13
7On Target4
5Off Target6
1Blocked3
5Inside Box9
8Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
422Total Passes418
313Accurate Passes295
74%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls5
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

League Two: Scunthorpe 2–2 Crewe

Scunthorpe and Crewe drew 2-2 in League Two on January 25, 2020.

Goals: J. Bedeau (15'), D. Powell (46'), O. Finney (69'), K. van Veen (73').

Scunthorpe controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.