Scunthorpe 5–3 Charlton: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Charlton

S. Humphrys 90+3'

J. Morris 73' (pen)

C. Borthwick-Jackson 38', 30'

C. Goode 3'

J. Aribo 69', 22'

L. Taylor 18'

10/2/2018

League One · Round 11Glanford Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Scunthorpe34%

×Draw25%

Charlton41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.47

Scunthorpe

1.31

Charlton

1.47

Charlton creates 12% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 143 away

1.38

creates per match

1.22

1.72

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Scunthorpe

1.38

Charlton

1.22

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.72

Charlton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

59%

Scunthorpe or Charlton

75%

Draw or Charlton

66%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

15%

Charlton wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

73%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

38%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

14%

Charlton 1+ goals

77%

Charlton 2+ goals

43%

Charlton 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

45%

Charlton (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 1.38 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Charlton attack 1.22 + Scunthorpe defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

34%

level

25%

Charlton scores more

41%

Charlton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

C. Goode↳ R. Colclough

5'

A. Dijksteel← L. Page

18'

22'

24'

30'

38'

C. Borthwick-Jackson↳ S. Humphrys

52'

B. Reeves← D. Pratley

61'

68'

69'

72'

73'

J. MorrisPenalty

82'

Vetokele← T. Fosu

85'

A. Dales← L. Novak

89'

G. Thomas← J. Clarke

90'

Funso Ojo

90+3'

S. Humphrys↳ G. Thomas

Scunthorpe

Charlton

21

6

20

23

3

▼

Page

15

▼

Pratley

11

▼

Fosu

17

⚽2

Aribo

24

Cullen

9

⚽A

18

25

23

2

▼

Clarke

21

Burgess

3

⚽2

Borthwick

20

⚽

Goode

6

Ojo

11

⚽

Morris

17

▼

Novak

49

A

Colclough

10

⚽A

Humphrys

Manager: S. McCall

85'▲A. Dales←▼L. Novak

89'▲G. Thomas←▼J. Clarke

Scunthorpe substitutes

12Dales18Thomas33Butroid22Sutton15Lewis27Flatt

Manager: L. Bowyer

5'▲A. Dijksteel←▼L. Page

52'▲B. Reeves←▼D. Pratley

82'▲Vetokele←▼T. Fosu

Charlton substitutes

2Dijksteel12Reeves14Vetokele32Lapslie19Morgan25Ajose1Phillips

Match Recap: Scunthorpe vs Charlton

Scunthorpe beat Charlton 5-3 in League One on October 2, 2018.

Goals: C. Goode (3'), L. Taylor (18'), J. Aribo (22', 69'), C. Borthwick-Jackson (30', 38'), J. Morris (73' pen), S. Humphrys (90+3').

The match was played at Glanford Park in Scunthorpe.

Scunthorpe vs Charlton — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Scunthorpe vs Charlton