Scunthorpe 2–0 Bradford: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bradford

D. Green 59'

Abobaker Eisa 5'

3/23/2021

League Two · Round 23Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe31%

×Draw28%

Bradford41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchBradford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.25

Scunthorpe

1.06

Bradford

1.25

Bradford creates 18% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 139 away

0.89

creates per match

1.15

1.35

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Scunthorpe

0.89

Bradford

1.15

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.35

Bradford

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Bradford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

59%

Scunthorpe or Bradford

72%

Draw or Bradford

69%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

12%

Bradford wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

65%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

29%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

9%

Bradford 1+ goals

71%

Bradford 2+ goals

36%

Bradford 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

44%

Bradford (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Bradford attack 1.15 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

31%

level

28%

Bradford scores more

41%

Bradford at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Gilliead

Scunthorpe · M

7.9

Match Events

5'

Abobaker Eisa↳ A. Gilliead

47'

Levi Sutton

54'

M. Hippolyte← J. Brown

59'

D. Green

73'

G. Evans← C. Vernam

73'

D. Rowe← E. Watt

75'

Danny Rowe

76'

A. Beestin← D. Green

87'

J. Rowe← T. Howe

87'

J. McAtee← J. Karacan

87'

O. Olomola← R. Loft

88'

Paudie O’Connor

89'

C. Donaldson← K. Scales

89'

J. Stevens← O. Crankshaw

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScunthorpeBradford

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots13

3Corners2

13Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots13

8On Target3

1Off Target6

0Blocked4

5Inside Box10

4Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

359Total Passes424

213Accurate Passes280

59%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls12

0Yellow Cards3