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Scunthorpe vs Bradford — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bradford
Bradford
J. Ward 13' (pen)
P. O'Connor 56'
9/28/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 11Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe31%
×Draw28%
Bradford41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.06
Bradford
1.25

Bradford creates 18% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 139 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Bradford
1.15

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Bradford
1.24

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Bradford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
59%
Scunthorpe or Bradford
72%
Draw or Bradford
69%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
12%
Bradford wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
65%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
29%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
9%
Bradford 1+ goals
71%
Bradford 2+ goals
36%
Bradford 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
44%
Bradford (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Bradford attack 1.15 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
31%
level
28%
Bradford scores more
41%

Bradford at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
P. O'ConnorBradfordBradford · D
7.8

Match Events

13'
J. WardPenalty
19'
Matthew Lund
26'
H. Akpan← M. Palmer
56'
P. O'Connor↳ H. Pritchard
67'
K. Ntlhe← R. Slater
68'
Jamie Ward
72'
Paudie O’Connor
74'
L. Novak← J. Ward
80'
A. Oteh← D. Connolly
86'
A. Dales← R. Colclough
90'
Yann Songo'o
90'
James Vaughan
90'
Hope Akpan
90+2'
S. McCartan← C. Donaldson

Possession

26%Scunthorpe

Shots

4Scunthorpe

Pass accuracy

39%Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpeBradford
Overview
26%Possession74%
4Total Shots17
0Corners9
18Fouls17
Shots
4Total Shots17
2On Target5
0Off Target9
2Blocked3
2Inside Box13
2Outside Box4
Passing
26%Possession74%
191Total Passes487
99Accurate Passes393
52%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls17
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

League Two: Scunthorpe 1–1 Bradford

Scunthorpe and Bradford drew 1-1 in League Two on September 28, 2019.

Goals: J. Ward (13' pen), P. O'Connor (56').

Bradford controlled possession (74%) and registered 17 shots to 4.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.