Scunthorpe 2–0 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Accrington ST

K. van Veen 42'

K. Wootton 13'

2/9/2019

League One · Round 32Glanford Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Scunthorpe42%

×Draw25%

Accrington ST33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.34

Scunthorpe

1.53

Accrington ST

1.34

Scunthorpe creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 107 away

1.38

creates per match

0.96

1.72

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Scunthorpe

1.38

Accrington ST

0.96

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.72

Accrington ST

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

67%

Scunthorpe or Accrington ST

75%

Draw or Accrington ST

58%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

21%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

78%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

45%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

20%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

74%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

39%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

56%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 1.38 + Accrington ST defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.53

Accrington ST attack 0.96 + Scunthorpe defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

42%

level

25%

Accrington ST scores more

33%

Scunthorpe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Scunthorpe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

K. Wootton↳ G. Thomas

39'

K. van Veen← L. Novak

42'

K. van Veen↳ G. Thomas

45'

Kyle Wootton

51'

Janoi Donacien

54'

Kevin van Veen

55'

S. Brown← S. Conneely

66'

L. Armstrong← C. Johnson

68'

74'

81'

83'

Scunthorpe

Accrington

1

Maxted

3

Hughes

28

▼

Conneely

5

Richards-

4

Donacien

2

▼

26

11

29

7

38

▼

25

4

23

26

21

16

6

22

17

▼

Novak

18

A

▼

Thomas

29

⚽

Wootton

Manager: S. McCall

39'▲K. van Veen←▼L. Novak

81'▲C. Lewis←▼G. Thomas

Scunthorpe substitutes

10Veen15Lewis5Webster7Lund24Olomola27Flatt47Hammill

Manager: J. Coleman

55'▲S. Brown←▼S. Conneely

66'▲L. Armstrong←▼C. Johnson

74'▲O. Zanzala←▼P. Smyth

Accrington ST substitutes

8Brown39Armstrong9Zanzala6Nolan18Rodgers30Evtimov33Gibson