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SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg — Bundesliga 2018

SCR Altach
SCR Altach
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
2/24/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Round 20CASHPOINT Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

SCR Altach39%
×Draw25%
TSV Hartberg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SCR Altach
1.46
TSV Hartberg
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 131 away

creates per match

SCR Altach
1.15
TSV Hartberg
1.40

allows per match

SCR Altach
1.35
TSV Hartberg
1.76

finishing

SCR Altach+0.00on par
TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCR Altach ↓

TSV Hartberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

SCR Altach or draw
64%
SCR Altach or TSV Hartberg
75%
Draw or TSV Hartberg
61%

Winning margin

SCR Altach wins by 2+
19%
TSV Hartberg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SCR Altach 1+ goals
77%
SCR Altach 2+ goals
43%
SCR Altach 3+ goals
18%
TSV Hartberg 1+ goals
75%
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
40%
TSV Hartberg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

SCR Altach (draw refunded)
52%
TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCR Altach at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 128 matches

TSV Hartberg away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.76 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCR Altach attack 1.15 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.46

TSV Hartberg attack 1.40 + SCR Altach defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SCR Altach scores more
39%
level
25%
TSV Hartberg scores more
36%

SCR Altach at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SCR Altach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg

TSV Hartberg beat SCR Altach 2-1 in Bundesliga on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at CASHPOINT Arena in Altach.