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SCR Altach vs Pogon Szczecin — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SCR Altach
SCR Altach
CANC
13:00
Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
1/25/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

SCR Altach47%
×Draw22%
Pogon Szczecin31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SCR Altach
1.92
Pogon Szczecin
1.53

SCR Altach creates 25% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

SCR Altach
1.94
Pogon Szczecin
1.56

allows per match

SCR Altach
1.50
Pogon Szczecin
1.89

finishing

SCR Altach+0.00on par
Pogon Szczecin+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCR Altach ↓

Pogon Szczecin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

SCR Altach or draw
69%
SCR Altach or Pogon Szczecin
78%
Draw or Pogon Szczecin
53%

Winning margin

SCR Altach wins by 2+
26%
Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SCR Altach 1+ goals
85%
SCR Altach 2+ goals
57%
SCR Altach 3+ goals
30%
Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals
78%
Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals
45%
Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SCR Altach (draw refunded)
60%
Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCR Altach at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Pogon Szczecin away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCR Altach attack 1.94 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.92

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.56 + SCR Altach defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SCR Altach scores more
47%
level
22%
Pogon Szczecin scores more
31%

SCR Altach at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SCR Altach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SCR Altach face Pogon Szczecin (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with SCR Altach hosting Pogon Szczecin. Match starts January 25, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SCR Altach host Pogon Szczecin at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.