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SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau — Bundesliga 2018

SCR Altach
SCR Altach
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
12/5/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Round 16CASHPOINT Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

SCR Altach43%
×Draw27%
Austria Lustenau30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SCR Altach
1.40
Austria Lustenau
1.13

SCR Altach creates 24% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 33 away

creates per match

SCR Altach
1.15
Austria Lustenau
0.91

allows per match

SCR Altach
1.35
Austria Lustenau
1.64

finishing

SCR Altach+0.00on par
Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCR Altach ↓

Austria Lustenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SCR Altach or draw
70%
SCR Altach or Austria Lustenau
73%
Draw or Austria Lustenau
57%

Winning margin

SCR Altach wins by 2+
20%
Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SCR Altach 1+ goals
75%
SCR Altach 2+ goals
41%
SCR Altach 3+ goals
17%
Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
68%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
31%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SCR Altach (draw refunded)
59%
Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCR Altach at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 128 matches

Austria Lustenau away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCR Altach attack 1.15 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.40

Austria Lustenau attack 0.91 + SCR Altach defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SCR Altach scores more
43%
level
27%
Austria Lustenau scores more
30%

SCR Altach at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SCR Altach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: SCR Altach 3–0 Austria Lustenau

SCR Altach beat Austria Lustenau 3-0 in Bundesliga on December 5, 2023.

The match was played at CASHPOINT Arena in Altach.