Scotland W 2–1 Venezuela W: Result & Stats

Scotland W

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Venezuela W

C. Emslie 40'

K. Clark 36'

D. Castellanos 59'

11/14/2022

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 1Estadio Antonio Barbadillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Scotland W48%

×Draw21%

Venezuela W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Scotland WExpected goals in this matchVenezuela W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.60

Scotland W

2.04

Venezuela W

1.60

Scotland W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

2.50

creates per match

1.71

1.50

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Scotland W

2.50

Venezuela W

1.71

allows per match

Scotland W

1.50

Venezuela W

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland W+0.00on par

Venezuela W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland W ↓

Venezuela W →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Scotland W or draw

69%

Scotland W or Venezuela W

79%

Draw or Venezuela W

52%

Winning margin

Scotland W wins by 2+

27%

Venezuela W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Scotland W 1+ goals

87%

Scotland W 2+ goals

60%

Scotland W 3+ goals

33%

Venezuela W 1+ goals

80%

Venezuela W 2+ goals

47%

Venezuela W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Scotland W (draw refunded)

61%

Venezuela W (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Scotland W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Venezuela W away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Scotland W attack 2.50 + Venezuela W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Venezuela W attack 1.71 + Scotland W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Scotland W scores more

48%

level

21%

Venezuela W scores more

31%

Scotland W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Scotland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

K. Clark↳ C. Weir

40'

C. Emslie↳ F. Brown

59'

D. Castellanos↳ B. Martinez

70'

C. Arthur← E. Cuthbert

70'

B. Hay← F. Brown

70'

K. Hanson← M. Thomas

78'

P. Villamizar← Y. Viso

84'

R. McAllister← C. Weir

85'

M. Astudillo← B. Martinez

88'

L. Davidson← C. Emslie

88'

S. Howard← K. Clark

90'

A. Fraiz← D. Rodríguez

Scotland

Venezuela

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Emslie

▼

Thomas

Manager: Pedro Martínez Losa

70'▲C. Arthur←▼E. Cuthbert

70'▲B. Hay←▼F. Brown

70'▲K. Hanson←▼M. Thomas

84'▲R. McAllister←▼C. Weir

88'▲L. Davidson←▼C. Emslie

88'▲S. Howard←▼K. Clark

Scotland W substitutes

14Arthur25Hay10Hanson19McAllister11Davidson15Howard26Clachers21Cumings1Gibson8Kerr5Clark24Smith13Eddie23Muir

Manager: P. Conti

78'▲P. Villamizar←▼Y. Viso

85'▲M. Astudillo←▼B. Martinez

90'▲A. Fraiz←▼D. Rodríguez

Venezuela W substitutes

7Villamizar17Astudillo15Fraiz1Velásquez3Gutiérrez14Solorzano22Azuaje21Sandoval23Moreno16Campos

Friendlies Women: Scotland W 2–1 Venezuela W

Scotland W beat Venezuela W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on November 14, 2022.

Goals: K. Clark (36'), C. Emslie (40'), D. Castellanos (59').

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Barbadillo in Arcos de la Frontera.

Scotland W vs Venezuela W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Scotland W 2–1 Venezuela W