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Scotland vs Russia — Euro Championship 2024

Scotland
Scotland
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Russia
Russia
J. McGinn 10'
S. O'Donnell 59' (OG)
A. Dzyuba 40'
9/6/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 5Hampden Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Scotland29%
×Draw23%
Russia48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scotland
1.38
Russia
1.82

Russia creates 32% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Scotland
1.63
Russia
2.14

allows per match

Scotland
1.50
Russia
1.14

finishing

Scotland+0.00on par
Russia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland ↓

Russia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Scotland or draw
52%
Scotland or Russia
77%
Draw or Russia
71%

Winning margin

Scotland wins by 2+
13%
Russia wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Scotland 1+ goals
75%
Scotland 2+ goals
40%
Scotland 3+ goals
16%
Russia 1+ goals
84%
Russia 2+ goals
54%
Russia 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Scotland (draw refunded)
38%
Russia (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Russia away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland attack 1.63 + Russia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Russia attack 2.14 + Scotland defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Scotland scores more
29%
level
23%
Russia scores more
48%

Russia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Russia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
A. DzyubaRussiaRussia · F
8.1

Match Events

10'
J. McGinn
40'
A. Dzyuba
46'
Liam Cooper
55'
Roman Zobnin
59'
S. O'DonnellOwn goal
62'
R. Christie← J. McGinn
62'
K. McLean← J. Forrest
66'
D. Barinov← R. Zobnin
70'
Kenny McLean
70'
Dmitriy Barinov
78'
M. Phillips← S. McTominay
80'
A. Erokhin← A. Ionov
89'
I. Akhmetov← A. Golovin
90'
Ilzat Akhmetov

Possession

46%Scotland

Shots

14Scotland

Pass accuracy

50%Scotland

Statistics

ScotlandRussia
Overview
46%Possession54%
14Total Shots17
6Corners9
11Fouls15
Shots
14Total Shots17
5On Target6
5Off Target5
4Blocked6
9Inside Box12
5Outside Box5
Passing
46%Possession54%
414Total Passes490
324Accurate Passes383
78%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides2

Euro Championship: Scotland 1–2 Russia

Russia beat Scotland 2-1 in Euro Championship on September 6, 2019.

Goals: J. McGinn (10'), A. Dzyuba (40'), S. O'Donnell (59' o.g.).

Russia controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Hampden Park in Glasgow.