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Scotland vs Northern Ireland — Friendlies 2026

Scotland
Scotland
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
C. Bradley 32'
3/26/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Hampden Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Scotland32%
×Draw26%
Northern Ireland42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scotland
1.25
Northern Ireland
1.46

Northern Ireland creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

creates per match

Scotland
0.90
Northern Ireland
1.13

allows per match

Scotland
1.80
Northern Ireland
1.60

finishing

Scotland+0.00on par
Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland ↓

Northern Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Scotland or draw
58%
Scotland or Northern Ireland
74%
Draw or Northern Ireland
68%

Winning margin

Scotland wins by 2+
14%
Northern Ireland wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Scotland 1+ goals
71%
Scotland 2+ goals
36%
Scotland 3+ goals
13%
Northern Ireland 1+ goals
77%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
43%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Scotland (draw refunded)
44%
Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland attack 0.90 + Northern Ireland defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.25

Northern Ireland attack 1.13 + Scotland defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Scotland scores more
32%
level
26%
Northern Ireland scores more
42%

Northern Ireland at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Northern Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
K. TierneyScotlandScotland · D
7.6

Match Events

21'
Alistair McCann
32'
C. Bradley
37'
L. Ferguson← A. Robertson
55'
Billy Gilmour
57'
J. Magennis← J. Reid
70'
K. McLean← B. Gilmour
70'
C. Adams← L. Dykes
78'
S. Armstrong← J. McGinn
78'
L. Shankland← R. Christie
83'
P. Smyth← C. Bradley
83'
C. McMenamin← I. Price
87'
J. Thompson← A. McCann

Possession

82%Scotland

Shots

14Scotland

Pass accuracy

59%Scotland

Statistics

ScotlandNorthern
Overview
82%Possession18%
14Total Shots4
7Corners1
7Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots4
2On Target1
4Off Target3
8Blocked0
7Inside Box2
7Outside Box2
Passing
82%Possession18%
794Total Passes173
710Accurate Passes108
89%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides4

Friendlies: Scotland 0–1 Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland beat Scotland 1-0 in Friendlies on March 26, 2024.

Goals: C. Bradley (32').

Scotland controlled possession (82%) and registered 14 shots to 4.

The match was played at Hampden Park in Glasgow.