Scotland 0–1 Ivory Coast: Result & Stats

Scotland

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ivory Coast

N. Pepe 12'

3/31/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalHill Dickinson Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Scotland23%

×Draw26%

Ivory Coast52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScotlandExpected goals in this matchIvory Coast

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.54

Scotland

0.92

Ivory Coast

1.54

Ivory Coast creates 67% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

0.90

creates per match

1.27

1.80

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Scotland

0.90

Ivory Coast

1.27

allows per match

Scotland

1.80

Ivory Coast

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland+0.00on par

Ivory Coast+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland ↓

Ivory Coast →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Scotland or draw

48%

Scotland or Ivory Coast

74%

Draw or Ivory Coast

77%

Winning margin

Scotland wins by 2+

8%

Ivory Coast wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Scotland 1+ goals

60%

Scotland 2+ goals

23%

Scotland 3+ goals

7%

Ivory Coast 1+ goals

79%

Ivory Coast 2+ goals

45%

Ivory Coast 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Scotland (draw refunded)

30%

Ivory Coast (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Ivory Coast away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland attack 0.90 + Ivory Coast defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92

Ivory Coast attack 1.27 + Scotland defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Scotland scores more

23%

level

26%

Ivory Coast scores more

52%

Ivory Coast at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ivory Coast will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Souttar

Scotland · D

8.0

Match Events

12'

N. Pepe

46'

S. Bain← L. Kelly

46'

L. Ferguson← S. McTominay

61'

E. Agbadou← O. Diomande

62'

N. Patterson← R. McCrorie

62'

G. Doue← G. Konan

69'

S. Adingra← N. Pepe

69'

A. Diallo← B. Traore

70'

J. McGinn← R. Christie

70'

K. McLean← B. Gilmour

77'

L. Dykes← G. Hirst

77'

T. Conway← C. Adams

77'

E. Guessand← E. Wahi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScotlandIvory

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots12

7Corners5

9Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots12

4On Target3

6Off Target5

4Blocked4

10Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

488Total Passes556

435Accurate Passes501

89%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls9

0Offsides1