Scotland 1–3 Iceland: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Scotland

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Iceland

John Souttar 25'

Victor Pálsson 52'

Lewis Ferguson 45' (OG)

Andri Guðjohnsen 8'

6/6/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Hampden Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Scotland34%

×Draw27%

Iceland39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScotlandExpected goals in this matchIceland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.34

Scotland

1.23

Iceland

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 25 away

0.90

creates per match

0.88

1.80

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Scotland

0.90

Iceland

0.88

allows per match

Scotland

1.80

Iceland

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland+0.00on par

Iceland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland ↓

Iceland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Scotland or draw

61%

Scotland or Iceland

73%

Draw or Iceland

66%

Winning margin

Scotland wins by 2+

15%

Iceland wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Scotland 1+ goals

71%

Scotland 2+ goals

35%

Scotland 3+ goals

13%

Iceland 1+ goals

74%

Iceland 2+ goals

39%

Iceland 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Scotland (draw refunded)

46%

Iceland (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Iceland away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland attack 0.90 + Iceland defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.23

Iceland attack 0.88 + Scotland defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Scotland scores more

34%

level

27%

Iceland scores more

39%

Iceland at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Iceland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

John Souttar

Scotland · D

7.7

Match Events

7'

Cieran Slicker← Angus Gunn

8'

Andri Guðjohnsen↳ Stefán Teitur Þórðarson

25'

John Souttar↳ Max Johnston

45'

Lewis FergusonOwn goal

46'

Daníel Grétarsson← Hörður Magnússon

51'

John McGinn

52'

Victor Pálsson↳ Albert Guðmundsson

60'

Dagur Dan Þórhallsson← Victor Pálsson

63'

George HirstGoal cancelled

68'

Scott McKenna← Grant Hanley

68'

Che Adams← George Hirst

68'

Lennon Miller← Kieran Tierney

69'

Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson

72'

Mikael Anderson← Stefán Teitur Þórðarson

72'

Arnór Traustason← Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson

72'

Willum Thor Willumsson← Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson

77'

Aron Gunnarsson← Sverrir Ingi Ingason

80'

Tommy Conway← Scott McTominay

80'

Nathan Patterson← Max Johnston

88'

Lennon Miller

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScotlandIceland

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots5

6Corners1

11Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots5

5On Target3

4Off Target1

6Blocked1

11Inside Box1

4Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

531Total Passes427

452Accurate Passes341

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0