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Scotland vs Curaçao — Friendlies 2026

Scotland
Scotland
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Curaçao
Curaçao
R. Christie 81' (pen)
L. Shankland 64', 59'
F. Curtis 45'
T. Chong 17'
5/30/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalHampden Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Scotland49%
×Draw23%
Curaçao28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scotland
1.78
Curaçao
1.29

Scotland creates 38% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Scotland
0.90
Curaçao
0.78

allows per match

Scotland
1.80
Curaçao
2.67

finishing

Scotland+0.00on par
Curaçao+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland ↓

Curaçao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Scotland or draw
72%
Scotland or Curaçao
77%
Draw or Curaçao
51%

Winning margin

Scotland wins by 2+
27%
Curaçao wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Scotland 1+ goals
83%
Scotland 2+ goals
53%
Scotland 3+ goals
26%
Curaçao 1+ goals
72%
Curaçao 2+ goals
37%
Curaçao 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Scotland (draw refunded)
64%
Curaçao (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Curaçao away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland attack 0.90 + Curaçao defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Curaçao attack 0.78 + Scotland defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Scotland scores more
49%
level
23%
Curaçao scores more
28%

Scotland at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Scotland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
L. ShanklandScotlandScotland · F
8.9

Match Events

17'
T. Chong↳ A. Obispo
36'
Tahith Chong
37'
Jürgen LocadiaCard upgrade
38'
Jürgen Locadia
42'
F. Curtis← B. Gilmour
45'
F. Curtis↳ K. McLean
46'
L. Dykes← G. Hirst
46'
N. Patterson← A. Hickey
46'
G. Hanley← J. Souttar
46'
D. Hyam← S. McKenna
46'
T. Fletcher← B. Gannon-Doak
46'
G. Kastaneer← R. Bazoer
49'
Kenny McLean
55'
G. Roemeratoe← L. Bacuna
59'
L. Shankland↳ R. Christie
61'
J. Antonisse← J. Bacuna
61'
T. Noslin← L. Comenencia
64'
L. Shankland↳ L. Dykes
68'
Tyler Fletcher
77'
L. Kelly← C. Gordon
77'
A. Ralston← A. Robertson
77'
J. Wilson← L. Shankland
81'
R. ChristiePenalty
83'
Gervane Kastaneer

Possession

67%Scotland

Shots

18Scotland

Pass accuracy

54%Scotland

Statistics

ScotlandCuraçao
Overview
67%Possession33%
18Total Shots9
8Corners2
17Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots9
11On Target3
5Off Target4
2Blocked2
14Inside Box4
4Outside Box5
Passing
67%Possession33%
591Total Passes299
535Accurate Passes234
91%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
17Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1

Match Recap: Scotland vs Curaçao

Scotland beat Curaçao 4-1 in Friendlies on May 30, 2026.

Goals: T. Chong (17'), F. Curtis (45'), L. Shankland (59', 64'), R. Christie (81' pen).

Scotland controlled possession (67%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Hampden Park in Glasgow.