Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Scotland U23 W vs Netherlands U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Scotland U23 W
Scotland U23 W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Netherlands U23 W
Netherlands U23 W
3/2/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Scotland U23 W17%
×Draw21%
Netherlands U23 W62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scotland U23 W
1.00
Netherlands U23 W
2.08

Netherlands U23 W creates 108% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Scotland U23 W
1.00
Netherlands U23 W
1.67

allows per match

Scotland U23 W
2.50
Netherlands U23 W
1.00

finishing

Scotland U23 W+0.00on par
Netherlands U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland U23 W ↓

Netherlands U23 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Scotland U23 W or draw
38%
Scotland U23 W or Netherlands U23 W
79%
Draw or Netherlands U23 W
83%

Winning margin

Scotland U23 W wins by 2+
6%
Netherlands U23 W wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Scotland U23 W 1+ goals
63%
Scotland U23 W 2+ goals
26%
Scotland U23 W 3+ goals
8%
Netherlands U23 W 1+ goals
87%
Netherlands U23 W 2+ goals
61%
Netherlands U23 W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Scotland U23 W (draw refunded)
22%
Netherlands U23 W (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland U23 W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Netherlands U23 W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland U23 W attack 1.00 + Netherlands U23 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Netherlands U23 W attack 1.67 + Scotland U23 W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Scotland U23 W scores more
17%
level
21%
Netherlands U23 W scores more
62%

Netherlands U23 W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Netherlands U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Scotland U23 W 0–4 Netherlands U23 W

Netherlands U23 W beat Scotland U23 W 4-0 in Friendlies Women on March 2, 2026.