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liaoning hongyun FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — League One 2018

liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
3/17/2018League OneLeague One · Round 2Tiexi New District Sports Center (Shenyang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

liaoning hongyun FC28%
×Draw26%
Shenzhen Ruby FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

liaoning hongyun FC
1.08
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.45

Shenzhen Ruby FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.17
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.40

allows per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.50
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.00

finishing

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

liaoning hongyun FC ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

liaoning hongyun FC or draw
54%
liaoning hongyun FC or Shenzhen Ruby FC
74%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
72%

Winning margin

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
11%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
66%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
29%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
10%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
77%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
42%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
38%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

liaoning hongyun FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.17 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.40 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

liaoning hongyun FC scores more
28%
level
26%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
46%

Shenzhen Ruby FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shenzhen Ruby FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: liaoning hongyun FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC

Shenzhen Ruby FC beat liaoning hongyun FC 1-0 in League One on March 17, 2018.

The match was played at Tiexi New District Sports Center (Shenyang).