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Scotland U19 vs Sweden U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Scotland U19
Scotland U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sweden U19
Sweden U19
E. Watt 83'
B. Gilmour 20' (pen)
P. Vagic 73'
A. Ousou 71'
11/20/2018UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 8Corbett Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Scotland U1950%
×Draw21%
Sweden U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scotland U19
2.06
Sweden U19
1.53

Scotland U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Scotland U19
2.80
Sweden U19
2.67

allows per match

Scotland U19
0.40
Sweden U19
1.33

finishing

Scotland U19+0.00on par
Sweden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland U19 ↓

Sweden U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Scotland U19 or draw
71%
Scotland U19 or Sweden U19
79%
Draw or Sweden U19
50%

Winning margin

Scotland U19 wins by 2+
29%
Sweden U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Scotland U19 1+ goals
87%
Scotland U19 2+ goals
61%
Scotland U19 3+ goals
34%
Sweden U19 1+ goals
78%
Sweden U19 2+ goals
45%
Sweden U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)
63%
Sweden U19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland U19 at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Sweden U19 away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland U19 attack 2.80 + Sweden U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Sweden U19 attack 2.67 + Scotland U19 defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Scotland U19 scores more
50%
level
21%
Sweden U19 scores more
29%

Scotland U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Scotland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
B. GilmourPenalty
71'
A. Ousou
73'
P. Vagic
83'
E. Watt

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship: Scotland U19 2–2 Sweden U19

Scotland U19 and Sweden U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA U19 Championship on November 20, 2018.

Goals: B. Gilmour (20' pen), A. Ousou (71'), P. Vagic (73'), E. Watt (83').

The match was played at Corbett Sports Stadium in Y Rhyl / Rhyl, Denbighshire.