Scotland U19 3–0 Poland U19: Result & Stats

Scotland U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Poland U19

A. McCallion 80'

A. Smith 35'

J. McGrath 1'

3/31/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualification - Round 1 - League A - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Scotland U1940%

×Draw25%

Poland U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Scotland U19Expected goals in this matchPoland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.43

Scotland U19

1.52

Poland U19

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.86

creates per match

1.36

1.50

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Scotland U19

1.86

Poland U19

1.36

allows per match

Scotland U19

1.50

Poland U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Poland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland U19 ↓

Poland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Scotland U19 or draw

64%

Scotland U19 or Poland U19

75%

Draw or Poland U19

60%

Winning margin

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

19%

Poland U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Scotland U19 1+ goals

78%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

45%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

20%

Poland U19 1+ goals

76%

Poland U19 2+ goals

42%

Poland U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Poland U19 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland U19 attack 1.86 + Poland U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.52

Poland U19 attack 1.36 + Scotland U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Scotland U19 scores more

40%

level

25%

Poland U19 scores more

36%

Scotland U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Scotland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

J. McGrath↳ J. Teasdale

35'

A. Smith↳ J. McGrath

46'

M. Rosol← M. Ceglinski

46'

L. Szczygiel← F. Skorb

61'

J. Hoy← T. Gmur

68'

K. Delikat← S. Dudek

74'

A. McCallion← A. Traynor

79'

F. Boyd← A. Smith

80'

A. McCallion↳ Z. McAllister

87'

T. North← J. McGrath

87'

H. Borland← K. Gilligan

Scotland

Poland

1

Charuzy

2

▼

15

3

17

16

10

▼

Dudek

5

Juskiewic

21

Burkiewic

9

▼

Skorb

11

▼

1

4

5

3

2

A

McAlliste

8

Masson

15

▼

Traynor

17

▼

Gilligan

14

⚽

▼

Smith

7

⚽A

▼

McGrath

20

A

Teasdale

74'▲A. McCallion←▼A. Traynor

79'▲F. Boyd←▼A. Smith

87'▲T. North←▼J. McGrath

87'▲H. Borland←▼K. Gilligan

Scotland U19 substitutes

12Shaw6Vallance9North10Boyd13Borland16McCallion18Carrol19Davidson

Manager: W. Kobeszko

46'▲M. Rosol←▼M. Ceglinski

46'▲L. Szczygiel←▼F. Skorb

61'▲J. Hoy←▼T. Gmur

68'▲K. Delikat←▼S. Dudek

Poland U19 substitutes

22Bienduga6Delikat7Rosol13Zawadzki14Hoy19Szczygiel20Przybylko

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Scotland U19 3–0 Poland U19

Scotland U19 beat Poland U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 31, 2026.

Goals: J. McGrath (1'), A. Smith (35'), A. McCallion (80').

Scotland U19 vs Poland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Scotland U19 3–0 Poland U19