Scotland U19 1–2 Lithuania U19: Result & Stats

Scotland U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Lithuania U19

O. Stirton 35'

S. Paukstys 79'

D. Taucas 56'

11/15/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Scotland U1954%

×Draw23%

Lithuania U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Scotland U19Expected goals in this matchLithuania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.14

Scotland U19

1.85

Lithuania U19

1.14

Scotland U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.86

creates per match

0.77

1.50

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Scotland U19

1.86

Lithuania U19

0.77

allows per match

Scotland U19

1.50

Lithuania U19

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland U19 ↓

Lithuania U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Scotland U19 or draw

77%

Scotland U19 or Lithuania U19

77%

Draw or Lithuania U19

46%

Winning margin

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

31%

Lithuania U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Scotland U19 1+ goals

84%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

55%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

28%

Lithuania U19 1+ goals

68%

Lithuania U19 2+ goals

32%

Lithuania U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Lithuania U19 away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland U19 attack 1.86 + Lithuania U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.85

Lithuania U19 attack 0.77 + Scotland U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Scotland U19 scores more

54%

level

23%

Lithuania U19 scores more

23%

Scotland U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Scotland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

50'

51'

56'

58'

C. Hamill← C. Adamson

64'

E. Mooney← S. Mcardle

64'

J. Landers← O. Stirton

74'

79'

81'

84'

84'

90'

90+1'

90+3'

90+3'

D. Jermakovas← N. Garbaliauskas

90+3'

M. Ambrazaitis← G. Emerhi

Scotland

Lithuania

1

16

5

4

13

6

14

8

⚽

Paukstys

11

▼

Emerhi

9

▼

Garbaliau

7

⚽

▼

1

4

18

19

11

8

7

17

▼

Stewart

14

▼

Mcardle

15

▼

Adamson

16

⚽

▼

Stirton

58'▲C. Hamill←▼C. Adamson

64'▲E. Mooney←▼S. Mcardle

64'▲J. Landers←▼O. Stirton

84'▲F. Boyd←▼L. Stewart

Scotland U19 substitutes

12McGuire2Hamill3Gillies5Osborne6Isiguzo9Mooney10Boyd13Armer20Landers

Manager: R. Breu

90+3'▲D. Balsys←▼D. Taucas

90+3'▲D. Jermakovas←▼N. Garbaliauskas

90+3'▲M. Ambrazaitis←▼G. Emerhi

Lithuania U19 substitutes

12Semaska2Alisauskas3Balsys10Leipus17Barrenechea18Buikus19Jermakovas21Ambrazaitis

Match Recap: Scotland U19 vs Lithuania U19

Lithuania U19 beat Scotland U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 15, 2025.

Goals: O. Stirton (35'), D. Taucas (56'), S. Paukstys (79').

Scotland U19 vs Lithuania U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Scotland U19 vs Lithuania U19