Scotland U19 4–0 Liechtenstein U19: Result & Stats

Scotland U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Liechtenstein U19

A. Bavidge 90+2', 6'

D. Watret 85'

R. MacLeod 39'

11/16/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Cappielow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Scotland U1989%

×Draw7%

Liechtenstein U194%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Scotland U19Expected goals in this matchLiechtenstein U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.05

0.81

Scotland U19

4.05

Liechtenstein U19

0.81

Scotland U19 creates 400% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

1.86

creates per match

0.13

1.50

allows per match

6.25

creates per match

Scotland U19

1.86

Liechtenstein U19

0.13

allows per match

Scotland U19

1.50

Liechtenstein U19

6.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Liechtenstein U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland U19 ↓

Liechtenstein U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

68%32%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Scotland U19 or draw

96%

Scotland U19 or Liechtenstein U19

93%

Draw or Liechtenstein U19

11%

Winning margin

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

76%

Liechtenstein U19 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Scotland U19 1+ goals

98%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

90%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

74%

Liechtenstein U19 1+ goals

56%

Liechtenstein U19 2+ goals

19%

Liechtenstein U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

96%

Liechtenstein U19 (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Liechtenstein U19 away — creates 0.13, concedes 6.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland U19 attack 1.86 + Liechtenstein U19 defence 6.25 → ÷2 → 4.05

Liechtenstein U19 attack 0.13 + Scotland U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Scotland U19 scores more

89%

level

7%

Liechtenstein U19 scores more

4%

Scotland U19 at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Scotland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

19'

35'

39'

45+3'

R. Gassner← F. Oberwaditzer

46'

E. Sutherland← R. MacLeod

46'

M. Campbell← D. Smith

59'

S. Chambers

63'

D. Cummings← R. Oné

64'

D. Watret← C. Donovan

74'

K. Ure← S. Chambers

83'

B. Poitner← J. Cocetrone

83'

J. Verling← B. Konzett

85'

D. Watret

89'

F. Gritsch← A. Wolf

90+2'

A. Bavidge

Scotland

Liechtenstein

1

Schädler

5

▼

Oberwadit

7

Keller

18

▼

2

19

15

16

9

▼

Cocetrone

17

▼

Konzett

11

Allgäuer

12

Williamso

4

▼

Donovan

5

▼

Smith

3

Grant

14

Rice

17

▼

Chambers

6

Borland

10

Molotniko

19

⚽2

Bavidge

7

⚽

▼

MacLeod

9

▼

Oné

Manager: N. MacFarlane

46'▲E. Sutherland←▼R. MacLeod

46'▲M. Campbell←▼D. Smith

63'▲D. Cummings←▼R. Oné

64'▲D. Watret←▼C. Donovan

74'▲K. Ure←▼S. Chambers

Scotland U19 substitutes

15Sutherland18Campbell20Cummings13Watret16Ure2Dede8Miller11Frame1Mahady

Manager: M. Koller

45+3'▲R. Gassner←▼F. Oberwaditzer

83'▲B. Poitner←▼J. Cocetrone

83'▲J. Verling←▼B. Konzett

89'▲F. Gritsch←▼A. Wolf

Liechtenstein U19 substitutes

6Gassner4Poitner13Verling3Gritsch12Beck10Domig14Odermatt20Hoop8Wohlwend