Scotland U19 5–2 Kazakhstan U19: Result & Stats

Scotland U19

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Kazakhstan U19

A. Mebude 90+2'

J. Adam 78'

R. Ure 63', 5'

M. Anderson 42'

S. Askarov 62'

Y. Trufanov 28'

11/19/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Somerset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Scotland U1963%

×Draw19%

Kazakhstan U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Scotland U19Expected goals in this matchKazakhstan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.18

Scotland U19

2.36

Kazakhstan U19

1.18

Scotland U19 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.86

creates per match

0.86

1.50

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Scotland U19

1.86

Kazakhstan U19

0.86

allows per match

Scotland U19

1.50

Kazakhstan U19

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Kazakhstan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland U19 ↓

Kazakhstan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Scotland U19 or draw

82%

Scotland U19 or Kazakhstan U19

81%

Draw or Kazakhstan U19

37%

Winning margin

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

41%

Kazakhstan U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Scotland U19 1+ goals

90%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

68%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

41%

Kazakhstan U19 1+ goals

69%

Kazakhstan U19 2+ goals

33%

Kazakhstan U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Kazakhstan U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Kazakhstan U19 away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland U19 attack 1.86 + Kazakhstan U19 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.36

Kazakhstan U19 attack 0.86 + Scotland U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Scotland U19 scores more

63%

level

19%

Kazakhstan U19 scores more

18%

Scotland U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Scotland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

22'

28'

42'

52'

53'

60'

M. Omatay← D. Esimbekov

60'

N. Baybosynov← A. Kalymbetov

62'

S. Askarov

63'

R. Ure

68'

B. McPherson← J. Harkness

68'

F. Pollock← B. Hepburn

68'

R. Duncan← D. Reid

74'

S. Popov← M. Pangerei

76'

S. Askarov

78'

J. Adam

80'

B. Wales← J. Adam

85'

89'

90+1'

90+4'

90+4'

90+2'

Scotland

Kazakhstan

1

Rikhard

4

⚽

5

2

19

17

8

14

▼

Esimbekov

6

▼

Kalymbeto

16

▼

Pangerei

20

⚽

Trufanov

1

Johnson

3

⚽

Anderson

5

Smith

4

▼

Harkness

8

▼

Carse

13

▼

Hepburn

17

Allan

10

⚽

▼

Adam

18

▼

Reid

11

⚽

Mebude

15

⚽2

Ure

Manager: B. Stark

68'▲B. McPherson←▼J. Harkness

68'▲F. Pollock←▼B. Hepburn

68'▲R. Duncan←▼D. Reid

80'▲B. Wales←▼J. Adam

85'▲M. Aiken←▼M. Carse

Scotland U19 substitutes

2McPherson9Pollock7Duncan20Wales19Aiken6Towler16Blaney14Offord12McFarlane

Manager: V. Masudov

60'▲M. Omatay←▼D. Esimbekov

60'▲N. Baybosynov←▼A. Kalymbetov

74'▲S. Popov←▼M. Pangerei

Kazakhstan U19 substitutes

11Omatay13Baybosynov10Popov7Akhmedov3Orazbek15Turganov9Toktybay12Politik18Noskov

Match Recap: Scotland U19 vs Kazakhstan U19

Scotland U19 beat Kazakhstan U19 5-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 19, 2022.

Goals: R. Ure (5', 63'), Y. Trufanov (28'), M. Anderson (42'), S. Askarov (62'), J. Adam (78'), A. Mebude (90+2').

The match was played at Somerset Park in Ayr.

Scotland U19 vs Kazakhstan U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Scotland U19 vs Kazakhstan U19