Scotland U19 0–1 Israel U19: Result & Stats

Scotland U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Israel U19

R. Revivo 88'

3/29/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 5Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Scotland U1935%

×Draw24%

Israel U1941%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Scotland U19Expected goals in this matchIsrael U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.65

Scotland U19

1.50

Israel U19

1.65

Israel U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.86

creates per match

1.79

1.50

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Scotland U19

1.86

Israel U19

1.79

allows per match

Scotland U19

1.50

Israel U19

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Israel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland U19 ↓

Israel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Scotland U19 or draw

59%

Scotland U19 or Israel U19

76%

Draw or Israel U19

65%

Winning margin

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

17%

Israel U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Scotland U19 1+ goals

78%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

44%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

19%

Israel U19 1+ goals

81%

Israel U19 2+ goals

49%

Israel U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Israel U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Israel U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland U19 attack 1.86 + Israel U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.50

Israel U19 attack 1.79 + Scotland U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Scotland U19 scores more

35%

level

24%

Israel U19 scores more

41%

Israel U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Israel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

D. Turgeman

34'

E. Y. Kancepolsky

44'

L. Coulton← M. Johnston

53'

O. Senior← A. Ibrahim

57'

R. Revivo

59'

I. Gorno← E. Kanzapolsky

59'

N. Mucha← A. Lugasi

64'

A. Mebude← R. Apter

75'

C. McKinnon← L. Smith

75'

C. Mochrie← A. Brooks

75'

L. Butterfield← Michael Craig

86'

86'

86'

88'

Scotland

Israel

1

Gliklich

12

⚽

Revivo

3

Israelov

2

▼

Tomer

6

▼

Madmon

4

Lemkin

14

▼

Kanzapols

10

Gloch

9

Turgeman

11

▼

Lugasi

20

▼

1

2

5

13

▼

Johnston

6

Chilokoa-

8

Craig

7

▼

Craig

17

▼

Smith

10

Carse

9

▼

Brooks

16

▼

Apter

Manager: B. Stark

44'▲L. Coulton←▼M. Johnston

64'▲A. Mebude←▼R. Apter

75'▲C. McKinnon←▼L. Smith

75'▲C. Mochrie←▼A. Brooks

75'▲L. Butterfield←▼Michael Craig

Scotland U19 substitutes

3Coulton19Mebude14McKinnon18Mochrie15Butterfield11Lowry4Smith12Johnson20Duncan

Manager: O. Haim

53'▲O. Senior←▼A. Ibrahim

59'▲I. Gorno←▼E. Kanzapolsky

59'▲N. Mucha←▼A. Lugasi

86'▲S. Edri←▼I. Madmon

86'▲S. Genis←▼I. Tomer

Israel U19 substitutes

7Senior19Gorno16Mucha5Edri17Genis18Tzarfati15Faingold8Archel13Yashilirmak

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Scotland U19 0–1 Israel U19

Israel U19 beat Scotland U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 29, 2022.

Goals: R. Revivo (88').

The match was played at Alcufer Stadion in Győr.

Scotland U19 vs Israel U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Scotland U19 0–1 Israel U19