Scotland U19 3–0 Gibraltar U19: Result & Stats

Scotland U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Gibraltar U19

L. Butterfield 77'

R. Apter 45'

A. Lowry 26'

11/13/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Igralište Lučkog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Scotland U1990%

×Draw6%

Gibraltar U193%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Scotland U19Expected goals in this matchGibraltar U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.14

0.75

Scotland U19

4.14

Gibraltar U19

0.75

Scotland U19 creates 452% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.86

creates per match

0.00

1.50

allows per match

6.42

creates per match

Scotland U19

1.86

Gibraltar U19

0.00

allows per match

Scotland U19

1.50

Gibraltar U19

6.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Gibraltar U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland U19 ↓

Gibraltar U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (11%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

68%32%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Scotland U19 or draw

97%

Scotland U19 or Gibraltar U19

94%

Draw or Gibraltar U19

10%

Winning margin

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

78%

Gibraltar U19 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Scotland U19 1+ goals

98%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

91%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

75%

Gibraltar U19 1+ goals

53%

Gibraltar U19 2+ goals

17%

Gibraltar U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

97%

Gibraltar U19 (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Gibraltar U19 away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland U19 attack 1.86 + Gibraltar U19 defence 6.42 → ÷2 → 4.14

Gibraltar U19 attack 0.00 + Scotland U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Scotland U19 scores more

90%

level

6%

Gibraltar U19 scores more

3%

Scotland U19 at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Scotland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

A. Lowry

45'

R. Apter

67'

L. Soiza← K. Livingstone

72'

F. Huart← F. Cawthorn

75'

A. Brooks← K. Offord

75'

M. Carse← C. Mochrie

77'

L. Butterfield

81'

K. Rodriguez← E. Wilson

81'

M. Emrani← D. Martin

83'

C. McKinnon← R. Apter

83'

Michael Craig← Matthew Craig

Scotland

Gibraltar

23

2

5

6

8

▼

Martin

4

Thorne

15

▼

Livingsto

9

▼

Cawthorn

16

Busto

17

Perera

14

▼

12

14

13

4

15

16

▼

Craig

11

▼

Mochrie

18

⚽

Lowry

17

⚽

Butterfie

20

▼

Offord

19

⚽

▼

Apter

Manager: B. Stark

75'▲A. Brooks←▼K. Offord

75'▲M. Carse←▼C. Mochrie

83'▲C. McKinnon←▼R. Apter

83'▲Michael Craig←▼Matthew Craig

Scotland U19 substitutes

9Brooks10Carse8McKinnon6Craig2Chilokoa-Mullen1Hogarth5Morrison7Smith3Watson

Manager: M. Martin

67'▲L. Soiza←▼K. Livingstone

72'▲F. Huart←▼F. Cawthorn

81'▲K. Rodriguez←▼E. Wilson

81'▲M. Emrani←▼D. Martin

Gibraltar U19 substitutes

20Soiza12Huart3Rodriguez7Emrani1Victor11Laguea10McGrail18Avellano13Victor

Match Recap: Scotland U19 vs Gibraltar U19

Scotland U19 beat Gibraltar U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 13, 2021.

Goals: A. Lowry (26'), R. Apter (45'), L. Butterfield (77').

The match was played at Igralište Lučkog in Zagreb.

Scotland U19 vs Gibraltar U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Scotland U19 vs Gibraltar U19